Act Like A Bee
The inspiration for the swarm studies comes from observing bees working together. In a short span of time, they converge to accomplish feats impossible to one acting alone.
When people work together to arrive at a solution they can regularly outperform the experts. This phenomenon occurs when numerous people input their prediction. New studies have illustrated that this “swarm intelligence” has implications for predicting outcomes ranging from the Stanley Cup to Oscar winners. In fact, in one study a “swarm” of just 29 people worked as a team to predict the 2016 Super Bowl outcome with 68% accuracy. At the same time, 469 football fans made bets resulting in an accuracy of just 47%. These results illustrate the difference between crowds and swarms.
The higher performing group, the swarm, was more accurate because they operated in a closed-loop system with real-time feedback. This characteristic appears more important than the number of participants answering a question. The study shows that human swarming is “a more effective method for harnessing the intelligence of groups.” Part of the magic comes from the environment.
Rather than working as a collection of disparate pieces, a swarm is a tight-knit whole deciding at one time. The same study concludes that this swarming “Enables insights to be attained from human groups with a much smaller sample sizes than polls or surveys.” This finding has powerful implications for users on another closed-loop system: KINFO.
Making Better Decisions
At KINFO we’ve built our own closed-loop. We’re a home to a community of investors that can interact in real-time. Our system reflects the properties of a swarm because we’re learning to do a lot with a few. As our base of users grows, this swarm will likely break into several groups. This segmented approach will allow small groups to exchange ideas on specific markets and investments freely.
The predictive power of small groups can have enormous impacts of investing. The reason: at KINFO these groups can converge and in response to the market. This approach can outperform conventional methods of simply watching the market and taking a guess. “In prediction markets, those with more money have greater sway on the final outcome. Such forces can distort the real picture,” explains the BBC.
At KINFO we’ve leveled the playing field. Our system gives everyone a voice. Users gauge success by total return, not the value of one’s account. Those who have already joined are discovering the predictive power of small groups. Investment returns can grow when people share ideas in a forum designed to capitalize on intelligence and experience. Putting these principals in action is just another example of how KINFO sits at the fore of innovation in the financial world.